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Almond Update August 12, 2014

The July position report was released today, with a disappointing 132.5 million lbs. shipped, compared to the record 151.2 million lbs. shipped last July. Domestic shipments held their own at 53.5 million lbs., setting a new record over last year’s 51.2 million lbs. However, Export shipments were at 79 million lbs., down substantially from the record 100 million lbs. shipped last year. Total shipments for the crop year are at 1,937.4 million lbs., still up 3.8% from last crop year’s 1,866.5 million lbs. Most of that growth was in the domestic market, which was up 9.08% for the year. Export shipments were up just slightly, with 1.37% growth, in spite of declines of 30% and 18% in China and India, respectively.

That leaves us with computed inventory of 329.3 million lbs., of which 191.3 million lbs. is committed. Uncommitted inventory is at 138 million lbs., compared to 105.4 million lbs. at the end of last crop year. Similar to last year at this time, it is very difficult to find anything much left to offer from current crop, but demand has also been quiet so prices have been fairly steady.

In the meantime, frustrated buyers have turned their attention to trying to book new crop, with very little success. Initial reports from the fields are very disappointing in terms of yields and insect damage, and mixed in terms of size. Since stressed fields tend to harvest early, it is not unusual to have bad reports at this time. However, we are dealing with unprecedented drought conditions, so sellers prefer to wait until more of the crop is harvested before offering. Beyond just concern […]

By |August 12th, 2014|Article|Comments Off on Almond Update August 12, 2014

Walnut Orchard and Market Conditions

Please click on link below for an article from the Western Farm Press in regards to the orchard and market conditions for the 2014 walnut crop.

http://westernfarmpress.com/tree-nuts/orchard-and-market-conditions-point-decent-season-walnut-growers?NL=WFP-01&Issue=WFP-01_20140723_WFP-01_563&YM_RID=pnuts1@sbcglobal.net&YM_MID=1477939&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_1

By |July 23rd, 2014|Article|Comments Off on Walnut Orchard and Market Conditions

Walnut Update

The Walnut Handler Coalition/SCTC Export Association met today and pooled their opinions to come up with their subjective estimate of 541,000 tons. This is up from the 489,000 ton 2013 crop. Most handlers are not actively selling new crop yet, but some business has been done as follows:
Jbo/Lge Chandlers: $2.25-2.28/lb.
Jbo/Lge Hartleys: $2.13-2.15/lb.
Jbo/Lge Vinas: $2.12-2.15/lb.
Chandler LHP 20%: 5.10/lb.
LHP 20%: $5.05-5.10/lb.

There is virtually nothing left of current crop at this time, so demand for early shipments of both inshell and kernels should be strong. Whether prices will hold after initial demand is filled remains to be seen. If you have any questions, or are looking for anything in particular, please let us know.

By |July 23rd, 2014|Article|Comments Off on Walnut Update

2014 Objective Almond Estimate

California’s 2014 almond production is forecast at 2.1 billion meat pounds.

By |July 3rd, 2014|Article|Comments Off on 2014 Objective Almond Estimate

Almond Update June 11, 2014

The May position report was released today, with 143.7 million lbs. shipped, compared to 131.6 million lbs. last year and the record 145.4 million lbs. shipped in May 2012. Domestic shipments were at 54.6 million lbs., just surpassing last May’s record 54.3 million lbs. Export shipments were at 89.1 million lbs., up from last year’s 77.2 million lbs., but slightly behind 2012’s record 91.7 million lbs. Total shipments for the year are at 1,652.1 million lbs., up 4.69% over last year.

Sales for the month were strong, bringing us back in line with commitments compared to this time last year. That leaves us with 329.5 million lbs. uncommitted, compared to 297.6 million lbs. at the end of May last year. With current inventory at 612.4 million lbs., we are still set to have a carryout around 320-340 million lbs.

The surge in prices since the May 1st Subjective Estimate has continued, fueled by drought concerns and continued strong demand. Today’s report will keep prices firm and June seems to be shaping up to be another month of strong shipments, so I don’t expect much change there. But of course the bigger news will come when the Objective Estimate is released on June 30th. As always, that number has the potential to completely change the game. The 1.95 billion lb. estimate we are working with now would give us an almost identical supply situation to this year and allow no room for growth. Between this and the drought, very little new crop has been sold. Sellers have not been motivated by prices that are at a discount to current crop.

If the Objective Estimate […]

By |June 12th, 2014|Article|Comments Off on Almond Update June 11, 2014

Almond Update May 9, 2014

The April shipment report was released today, with 137.7 million lbs. shipped, compared to 129.5 million lbs. last year. Domestic shipments were at 50.9 million lbs., just slightly behind last April’s record 51.4 million lbs. Export shipments were at 86.9 million lbs. up from last year’s 78.2 million lbs., but still behind the record 103.7 million lbs. shipped in April 2012. Total shipments for the crop year are at 1,508.3 million lbs., 4.28% ahead of last year at this time.

Sales were off a bit, leaving us with commitments of 321.2 million lbs., down over 10% from the 359.4 million lbs. that were committed at this time last year. That leaves uncommitted inventory at 433.8 million lbs., compared to 353.7 million lbs. last April. With total supply currently at 755 million lbs., it seems likely we will end the year with a carryout around 320-340 million lbs., a comfortable amount for an orderly transition into new crop. Some sizes and grades are already becoming hard to find, but that is not unusual for this time of year.

Prices had already firmed after the May 1st estimate, and this report continues that momentum. With drought concerns still an issue and the Objective Estimate about seven weeks away, I am not sure if there is anything else on the immediate horizon that will change that.

By |May 14th, 2014|Article|Comments Off on Almond Update May 9, 2014

2014 California Almond Crop Subjective Forecast

The initial forecast for the 2014 California almond crop is 1.95 billion lbs., on an estimated 860,000 acres.

By |May 14th, 2014|Article|Comments Off on 2014 California Almond Crop Subjective Forecast

Almond Update April 10, 2014

The March shipment report was released today, with 151.3 million lbs. shipped, compared to 140.6 million lbs. last year. Domestic shipments set a record again this month at 57 million lbs., compared to the previous record of 52.2 million lbs. shipped last March. Export shipments were at 94.3 million lbs., ahead of last year’s 88.4 million lbs., but still well below the record 124.1 million lbs. shipped in March 2012. Total shipments for the crop year are at 1,370.6 million lbs., a little over 4% ahead of last year.

Crop receipts just passed the 2 billion lb. mark, giving us a total supply of 2.26 billion lbs., which is 4.78% more than last year. With commitments up 7.8%, that leaves us with uncommitted inventory of 536.8 million lbs., compared to 512.8 million lbs. at the end of March 2013. Sales were robust at 116.8 million lbs., in spite of slumping prices and what felt like a sluggish market. If shipments for the remaining four months of the crop year are equal to last year, we will end up with a carryout around 340 million lbs., very similar to the 335.2 million lbs. we started the 2012-2013 crop year with. If we continue with shipments up about 4%, we will end up with around 320 million lbs., or similar to this last harvest.

Either way, it seems like a comfortable position to be in for the time being, with so many unknowns about the 2014 crop. We will gather more information in the coming months with the release of the April 24th Acreage Report, May 1st Subjective Estimate, June 30th Objective Estimate and the ongoing drought concerns. There may be some adjustments needed accordingly, but in the […]

By |May 14th, 2014|Article|Comments Off on Almond Update April 10, 2014

Almond Update March 11, 2014

The February shipment report was released on March 11, 2014, with a disappointing 149.3 million lbs. shipped, compared to 160 million lbs. last year.  Domestic shipments were the bright spot at 54.5 million lbs., well above last February’s record 43.2 million lbs.  But exports were at 94.9 million lbs., far below last year’s record 116.8 million lbs., and the 111.1 million lbs. shipped in February 2012.  Shipments to the U.S. and Europe continue to be strong, but not strong enough to offset the losses in China and India this month.  Total shipments for the crop year are at 1,219.3 million lbs., up 3.66% from last year at this time.

 

Crop receipts seem to have leveled off and are now at 1,990.3 million lbs., which should be pretty close to our final number.  That gives us a total supply of 2,247.8 million lbs., up 4.83% from last year.  Commitments are at 387.8 million lbs.  While still ahead of last year at this time, the decrease from last month reflects the slow sales month and leaves us with 640.7 million lbs. uncommitted, compared to 594.2 million lbs. at the end of last February.

 

With a good bloom, and some rains to take the edge off the drought, there have been more interested sellers than buyers these last few weeks and prices have softened accordingly.  While there does seem to be the potential for a big crop (2.2? 2.3?), the drought is far from over, and none of us really know how much it could affect the crop size.  Even with the recent rains, we are still in one of the driest winters on record, exacerbated by last calendar year being the driest ever recorded.  Additionally, the restraints that […]

By |March 20th, 2014|Article|Comments Off on Almond Update March 11, 2014